NFL - Championship Round Preview & Picks

By Willie Mullen

NFL Championship Round Preview and Picks

• New York Jets (11-7) @ Indianapolis Colts -7.5 (15-2)
• Jets: The Jets are proving that a throw-back team built on a strong running game and defense can win in today's pass-happy high-scoring NFL.  Even more impressive than their surprising playoff run is the fact that they are led by a rookie quarterback (Mark Sanchez) and a rookie head coach (Rex Ryan), with a rookie running back (Shonn Greene) making major contributions.  The offense has done enough to win but the defense is the real story for the Jets.  Led by corner Darrelle Revis, the Jets continue to shut down opposing offenses and force turnovers at critical times.  With one more win, the Jets will make their first Super Bowl appearance since 1968-1969.
• Colts: Indianapolis showed no rust following a few weeks off in their 20-3 win over the Ravens last Saturday.  As always, Peyton Manning and the offense are in high-gear and will be ready for Sunday's game.  The Colts under-sized defense continues to keep opponents out of the endzone and their speed is difficult for offenses, particularly offensive lines, to handle.  Peyton Manning is hoping to lead his team to their second Super Bowl appearance in four years.
• Preview: In my opinion, the Jets are very similar to the Ravens, whom the Colts defeated last week.  They run the ball a lot and will rely on their defense to keep them in the game.  There are two big differences however: (1) Mark Sanchez is playing much better football than was Joe Flacco and (2) the Jets commit far fewer penalties than the Ravens.  The Jets will look to keep this game close early so they can wear down the Colts defensive line and have success running the ball in the second half.  The Colts offense continues to define efficiency and they will have their hands full Sunday against the league's top-ranked defense
• Coaching: Rex Ryan was a hot name for a head coaching position for several years and you have to think some of the teams that passed on him are regretting their decision.  He has proven to be an incredible motivator and leader; his team is prepared, relaxed and they believe they will beat anyone.  The future is very, very bright for the Jets under Ryan.  Jim Caldwell also deserves a lot of credit.  It's never easy to replace a great coach but Caldwell has picked-up where Tony Dungy left-off, winning 15 games and on the verge of a Super Bowl berth.  But the advantage goes to Ryan in this one.
• Key Matchup: Rex Ryan vs. Peyton Manning.  Ryan is quickly becoming the best defensive mind in the NFL and we all know how Manning runs the Colts offense with unmatched precision and efficiency.  Manning will spend a lot of time at the line of scrimmage trying to get Ryan to tip his hand and, if the Jets show their attack a second too soon, Manning will carve them up.  Expect the Jets to counter Manning's "audibles" with movement of their own.
• Two Stats That Will Tell The Story: Jets 3rd down conversion percentage and red zone touchdown percentage.  If the Jets are to pull off the upset, they have to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines so converting third downs to extend drives is a must.  Once they get in the red zone, the Jets have to score touchdowns instead of field goals; the Colts are one of the best in the league at keeping opponents out of the end zone.
• The Jets will win if...Dustin Keller, Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and Brad Smith make some plays.  New York's pass-catchers have to help move the chains and gain some yards after the catch.  It will help if Mark Sanchez does turn the ball over as well.
• The Colts will win if...Jeff Saturday and Peyton Manning properly align their protection schemes.  The Jets blitzed the Chargers 60% of the time last week so these two must be able to locate the extra pass-rushers and adjust their teammates accordingly.  Home-field advantage should pay huge dividends in this aspect by allowing communication to be fairly easy.
• Prediction: It's easy to sympathize with tormented Jets fans and the underdog (although I'm sure Rex Ryan would not call his team that) is always easy to cheer for.  When he was hired, Ryan said his team will visit the White House as Super Bowl champions sometime very soon but I do not think this is the year.  Unless Mark Sanchez has the game of his life, the Jets do not have enough fire-power to pull off the upset.  Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the NFL and should lead his team back to the Super Bowl in Miami for the second straight time.  Colts 24 - Jets  17


• Minnesota Vikings (13-4) @ New Orleans Saints -3.5 (14-3)
• Vikings: Minnesota was absolutely dominating, rebounding from some late-season struggles.  Adrian Peterson continues to fight for yards but Brett Favre is on-fire and the defense, led by a suffocating pass-rush, is controlling the field.  Favre torched Dallas' defense, throwing for 234 yards and four touchdowns, and the Vikings defense had six sacks, forced three turnovers and held the Cowboys to 130 yards after the first quarter.
• Saints: Similar to the Vikings, the Saints ended all speculation surrounding their late-season woes with an impressive 45-14 over the Cardinals last weekend.  Drew Brees and the offense found their groove and Reggie Bush had the best game of his career with 217 total yards and two touchdowns.  Defensively, the Saints prevented Arizona from consistently moving the football and rebounded nicely after allowing a touchdown on the first play of the game.
• Preview: The NFC looked to be wide-open when the playoffs started.  Teams like Green Bay, Philadelphia and Dallas appeared to be the conferences' best at times but, in the end, it is the two teams who have been on-top all season that will play for a Super Bowl birth.  Both the Saints and Vikings are balanced on offense and rely on a heavy pass-rush from their front-four to lead their defenses.  Both are suspect in the secondary and the Saints will take a few more chances in hopes of a turnover than will the Vikings.  This game figures to be very close and the spread tells me that Vegas sees it as a 50/50 matchup.
• Coaching: Defensive coordinators Gregg Williams and Leslie Frazier are among the league's best and both will have to contain high-scoring offenses.  Aside from his choice of headset, Brad Childress has had a great year thanks to the addition of Favre and a team built to win a championship.  Sean Payton got his offense back on track last week and there is not a quarterback-coach combination more in sync that Payton-Brees.  Payton has the edge but Childress can prove his doubters wrong with a win on Sunday.
• Key Matchup: The obvious choice is both offensive lines against the pass-rushers, particularly Jermon Bushrod and Jared Allen.  But my selection is Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter vs. Sidney Rice.  The addition of Favre has turned Rice into an elite receiver and he is a tough matchup for opposing corners.  Rice is big and fast and he is a terrific route runner who attacks the ball when it is thrown his way.  Greer and Porter have to make someone other than Rice beat them in the passing game.  Expect Darren Sharper to offer a lot of over-the-top help on Rice.
• Two Stats That Will Tell The Story: Combined sacks and pressures from Saints defense and plays over 20 yards for both teams.  The Saints will bring extra rushers in passing situations as they cannot allow Favre time to find open receivers.  Defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant must win their battles with the Vikings tackles.  Look at these weapons: (Vikings) Peterson, Rice, Chester Taylor, Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe - (Saints) Bush, Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Jeremy Shockey.  Both teams get explosive plays from all over the field so this game will hinge on which team gets more.
• The Vikings will win if...Adrian Peterson gains over 120 yards.  I expect Jared Allen and the Vikings defensive line to pressure Drew Brees but Peterson has to have a few big runs.  Teams are really preventing Peterson from beating them and Favre has benefited.  The Saints may do more to stop Favre so Peterson needs to respond.  He also needs to hold onto the football, something that has troubled him throughout his career.
• The Saints will win if...Reggis Bush plays like he did last week.  Simply put, Bush was incredible last Saturday.  Too often in his career has Bush danced around at the line of scrimmage and ran east-west instead of north-south.  Well something clicked last weekend and Bush ran with never-before-seen toughness.  With his speed and agility, Bush is unstoppable if he continues to run that way.
• Prediction: It's hard to ignore the magic that surrounds Brett Favre and this season has been truly remarkable.  This Vikings team, led by the 40-year-old gun-slinger, almost feels destined to win a championship.  But the Saints are playing for the franchises' first ever Super Bowl birth and we all know how loud and intense the Superdome will be come Sunday (in fact, the party is probably starting right now).  Add in the fact that the Vikings looked very average on the road late in the season (3 straight losses) and I think the emotion in the building will be enough to carry the Saints to Miami.  Saints 38 - Vikings 35