NFL - Wildcard Weekend Preview & Picks

By Willie Mullen

NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview & Picks - Awards

• New York Jets (9-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (10-6)
• Jets: Needing wins in each of their final two games, the Jets got a big gift from the football gods in Weeks 16 and 17.  First, they faced a Colts team that sat Peyton Manning in the second half and then they faced a Bengals team that had nothing to play for.  The result?  Two wins and a playoff birth.  But don't be mistaken: the Jets rank #1 in rushing offense and the defense ranks #1 in both yards against and points allowed.
• Bengals: Cincinnati's rise to the top of the AFC North has to be one of biggest stories of the 2009-2010 NFL season.  A heartbreaking Week 1 loss, the death of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife and the tragic loss of teammate Chris Henry have been major obstacles for this team to overcome.  They have met each and every challenge and, behind a stifling defense and a strong running game, the Bengals find themselves hosting a playoff game.  
• Preview: This game figures to be a smash-mouth contest between two teams who love to run the ball and play attacking defense.  In games like these, there are three things that will determine the outcome: field position, turnovers and third down conversions.  The Jets had a -2 turnover margin while the Bengals were +3 in that area.  Cincinnati was slightly better on third down but the Jets defense ranked #1 on third downs while the Bengals ranked #16.  Carson Palmer holds a big advantage over Mark Sanchez but his favorite target, Chad Ochocinco, will be matched up all day against Darrelle Revis, the NFL's best cornerback.  Neither team is great in the passing game so the game will be won and lost on the shoulders of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson.
• Coaching: For me, coaching has a far greater impact in the playoffs than the regular season.  Marvin Lewis has proven to be a great motivator and Mike Zimmer has changed the face of the Bengals defense.  Rex Ryan is tough to scheme against because of his creativity and ability to confuse quarterbacks.  On the other side, this is Ryan's first playoff appearance and he is starting a rookie quarterback.  Still, I give Ryan a slight advantage.
• Prediction: Cincinnati has struggled of late, going 1-3 in their last four games, and they were just 4-6 outside of their division.  Meanwhile, the Jets have won five of their last six and most of the damage in their 37-0 win over the Bengals last week was done with Cincinnati's starters in the game.  The Jets have to be confident heading into this matchup and their defense should shut down the one-dimensional Bengals.  Jets 21 - Bengals 13


• Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) @ Dallas Cowboys -4 (11-5)
• Eagles: Prior to Week 17, Philadelphia looked to be headed towards a deep playoff run having won six games in a row in impressive fashion.  But the Eagles were dominated by the Cowboys 24-0 in last week's game to decide the NFC East champion and now return to Dallas for a rematch.  Philadelphia was fifth in the league in scoring so another shutout is highly unlikely.
• Cowboys: The Cowboys cannot win a game in December?  That was so 2008.  These 'Boys have won three straight behind a great pass rush and Tony Romo playing the best football of his career.  There is no doubt about it: the Cowboys are the trendy pick to win the NFC but let's hold off on that talk until they win their first playoff game since 1996.
• Preview: The Eagles have to find a way to start fast as the crowd is sure to be excited for the first playoff game in the new Cowboys Stadium.  The Eagles' offensive line has to give Donovan McNabb enough time to find open receivers and, in order to do so, Philadelphia should use a lot of screen passes and draw plays to slow down the Dallas pass-rush.  If executed correctly, McNabb should have the time and space to find DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek for some big plays.  Michael Vick could have an impact on the game as well - he gives Andy Reid another option to slow down Dallas' front seven.  Defensively, the Eagles will have their hands full with a Dallas offense that is on fire.  If Philadelphia wants to keep this game close, they have to limit big plays from Miles Austin, Jason Witten and Felix Jones.  It is also crucial for the Eagles to bring Tony Romo to the ground when they get a hand on him because Romo is the best in the league at keeping plays alive and creating opportunities.  And what can you say about the Dallas defense?  They are peaking at the right time and it feels like DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are getting to the quarterback on virtually every snap.
• Coaching: Andy Reid is 4-0 all-time in Wild Card games and the Eagles have been regulars in the NFC playoff scene this decade.  Wade Phillips may in fact still be coaching for his job next season but, given the Cowboys recent play, he has to like his chances to finally move beyond the first round.  But despite the fact that he is one of the worst game managers (in terms of timeouts and challenges) in the league, Andy Reid still gives the Eagles a big advantage on the sidelines.
• Prediction: One of the hardest things to do in the NFL is to beat the same team three times in one season.  The familiarity between division foes often negates strategic advantages.  I just cannot overlook the fact that Philadelphia was playing for a division title and the #2 seed in the NFC last week and completely failed to show up - not a good sign for this weekend.  Add in the fact that Tony Romo is on a roll and Dallas is extremely confident and this game could be lopsided.  Cowboys 34 - Eagles 17


• Baltimore Ravens (9-7) @ New England Patriots -3 (10-6)
• Ravens: The Ravens took care of business down the stretch, winning three of their last four to earn a playoff birth.  After hitting a wall early in the season, Joe Flacco turned it around during the last few weeks, completing 61% of his pass and throwing seven touchdowns and only one interception.  More importantly, however, was the growth of the Ravens defense throughout the season.  After struggling early on, the defense rebounded to rank third in the league in both yards against and points allowed and tied for the AFC lead with 30 takeaways.  Getting Ed Reed back after missing four games is a big boost as well.
• Patriots: Uncharacteristically, the Patriots have been a difficult team to figure out this season.  One week they look like world-beaters and the next they look very beatable.  New England is near the top of the AFC in most statistical categories but the Pats have not had the same number of big plays this season as they have in previous years.  The injury to Wes Welker is devastating: Welker led the league in receptions and was second in both yards and first downs.
• Preview: This is the only game that is not a rematch of Week 17 but these two teams did meet back in Week 4 at Foxboro.  The Patriots won that game 27-21 but the Ravens had a good chance to win the game late.  New England's defense will have their hands full with Ray Rice but luckily for them the Ravens have few play-makers to contain.  Baltimore's defense will certainly bring intensity, led by Ray Lewis.  And Welker's injury impacts two important aspects of the Ravens gameplan.  First, Baltimore does not have to worry about Welker running around underneath coverage, allowing their linebackers to play more aggressively and opening up all kinds of blitz options.  Secondly, the Ravens can key on stopping the Patriots deep-threat, Randy Moss, by allowing Ed Reed to provide over-the-top coverage help for his slow, aging cornerbacks.  For the Patriots to be successful, they must: (1) be able to run out of passing formations, (2) protect Tom Brady and, most importantly, (3) get their tight ends (particularly Ben Watson) involved early and often.
• Coaching: John Harbaugh is one of the league's best young coaches.  Along with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, he has shown tremendous offensive creativity, using trick-plays, unbalanced lines and lots of motion to keep opposing defenses off-balance.  Unfortunately for Harbaugh, Bill Belichick is this era's premiere coach and no one in the league is better at setting a gameplan around his opponent's weaknesses.  Advantage Patriots.
• Prediction: Ray Rice is the kind of player who can swing a game like this with a few big plays but the Ravens do not have any other threats offensively.  Remember when Tom Brady won all those Super Bowls with a nondescript supporting cast?  With the Ravens sure focus on Randy Moss, Brady will have to recall some of that old magic and look to guys like Julian Edelman, Sam Aiken and Isaiah Stanback to move the chains.  This game should be close and the Patriots hold a huge advantage in the kicking game.  Patriots 24 - Baltimore 23


• Green Bay Packers (11-5) @ Arizona Cardinals -1 (10-6)
• Packers: Fresh off a tremendous draft and an even better preseason, the Packers entered this season with high expectations.  It took them some time to get going but, once they found their groove, they have been among the leagues' best.  After an embarrassing Week 9 loss at Tampa Bay, the Packers have gone 7-1 and have outscored their opponents 236-125.  Aaron Rodgers, who threw three interceptions in that loss to the Bucs, has been lights out as well, with 2,179 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions, while completing 66% of his passes, during this stretch.  And with each passing week the defense becomes more comfortable in their 3-4 alignment, finishing the season second in the NFL in both yards allowed and takeaways.
• Cardinals: Arizona is hoping to capture some of that momentum that carried them to within minutes of a Super Bowl title during last years' playoffs.  Much like last season, the Cardinals struggled with consistency but, with little competition in the NFC West, the Cardinals were able to coast into the playoffs.  The key for them will be the continued health of Kurt Warner and the addition of Beanie Wells in the backfield has proven to be a great way to protect the 38-year-old quarterback.
• Preview: The Cardinals knew they would face Green Bay again in the playoffs prior to last week's 33-7 Packers win so they played that game very conservatively in terms of both personnel and play-calling.  But the Packers came out firing and made a loud statement in my opinion.  Arizona will have a difficult time stopping the Packers balanced offensive attack.  Whether it's Ryan Grant running the ball or Rodgers throwing to his numerous targets, the Packers are a threat to run any play in any situation, a nightmare for defensive coordinators.  But the Packers biggest strength is their protection of the football.  Green Bay committed just 15 turnovers all season en route to a league-leading +22 turnover margin.  Arizona's offense may be without one of its tops weapons, wide receiver Anquan Boldin, for Sunday's game.  Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald make up the best 1-2 receiving core in the league and his absence would be devastating.  Kurt Warner must be careful with the football as the Packers secondary features a bevy of ball-hawkers, including Charles Woodson, the favorite for NFL Defensive Player of the Year.  Green Bay's young linebacking core will have to slow down the big, powerful Cardinal running backs, led by Wells.
• Coaching: Mike McCarthy is a terrific play-caller and Dom Capers has done wonders to the Packers defense.  Perhaps the only negative about Green Bay is discipline: the Packers led the NFL in penalties.  Ken Whisenhunt has turned the Cardinals into the dominant team in the NFC West but the Cardinals are too hot and cold for my liking.  Capers gives the Packers a small advantage.
• Prediction: While researching this game, I found myself wondering what the Arizona Cardinals do very well.  They can throw the ball but are not among the league's best.  Their running game was second to last in the NFC.  Their defense ranks 13th in yards allowed and 14th in points against in the NFL.  Then I found it: the Cardinals led the league in red zone scoring.  That's a great starting point but unfortunately it will not be enough to beat a very good Green Bay team.  Packers 27 - Cardinals 20

Now for my entire playoff predictions (winner in italics):

Divisional Round

          Green Bay @ New Orleans

          New York @ Indianapolis

          Dallas @ Minnesota

          New England @ San Diego

Championship Round

          Green Bay @ Minnesota (Favre vs. the Pack Round 3 - could it be another other way?)

          San Diego @ Indianapolis

Super Bowl

          Green Bay @ San Diego Chargers

Awards

MVP - Peyton Manning (Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers)

Off. Player - Chris Johnson (Drew Brees, Philip Rivers)

Def. Player - Charles Woodson (Darren Sharper, Jared Allen, Patrick Willis)

Off. Rookie - Percy Harvin (Hakeem Nicks, Knowshon Moreno)

Def. Rookie - Brian Cushing (Clay Matthews, Jairus Byrd)

Coach - Marvin Lewis (Jim Caldwell, Norv Turner)