NFL - AFC South & NFC West 2010 Preview

By WAM

AFC SOUTH & NFC WEST 2010 PREVIEW

Today features part two of our five-part preview of the 2010 NFL offseason.  Click here for part one (NFC South & AFC West).

AFC South (Teams will play AFC West & NFC East divisions)

Indianapolis Colts

• 2009 Review: For a team that lost only three games all season long, the Colts view 2009 as another disappointing season because they came up short in the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning had arguably his finest season as a pro and won an NFL-record fourth MVP trophy. Wide receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie turned out to be more than adequate replacements for Marvin Harrison and the injured Anthony Gonzalez and as long as Manning is under center, the Colts are Super Bowl contenders.
• 2009 MVP: Manning
• Offseason Questions: The Colts do not have many weaknesses. General manager Bill Polian has done a tremendous job in the draft so the Colts will not be too active in free agency, with the exception of retaining their own players. At this point, the only thing Colts fans worry about is how can this team become more consistent in the playoffs.
• Biggest Free Agents: Linebacker Gary Brackett, tackle Charlie Johnson, cornerback Marlin Jackson, safety Antoine Bethea.
• 2010 Upgrades: There are two areas where this team was solid but unspectacular last season: offensive line and secondary. The secondary would get a tremendous boost if Bob Sanders could stay healthy and the offensive line was relatively young but both need an influx of new talent. It would not surprise me to see Polian add some depth on the defensive line as well.
• Draft: With the success Polian has had in recent years, the Colts will likely find an immediate contributor with the 31st selection. They will take an offensive lineman or defensive lineman; it just depends on who is rated highest on their board.
• 2010 Breakout Player: Garcon had 765 receiving yards in 2009 on just 47 catches and the latter should greatly increase in 2010 after his playoff performance. Garcon is the most likely breakout player on a team filled with stars.
• Schedule: The Colts are used to playing a first-place schedule - they have done so six of the past seven seasons. With the exception of games at Philadelphia and New England, the road schedule is fairly light while the Colts' home games (Dallas, San Diego, New York Giants, Cincinnati) will be far more challenging.

Houston Texans

• 2009 Review: The 2009 season looked like the year the Texans would finally break-through and reach the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. But three straight losses in late-November left the Texans at 5-7. They responded with a four-game winning streak to end the season (and finish above .500 for the first time) but once again were done playing football in Week 17.
• 2009 MVP: Quarterback Matt Schaub
• Offseason Questions: Head coach Gary Kubiak's future with the team is no longer in question but this is a franchise that needs to take the next step. Schaub has become a franchise quarterback, Andre Johnson is the league's best receiver in my opinion and the defense has some good, young talent, led by linebackers DeMeco Ryans and reigning defensive rookie of the year Brian Cushing. Can the Texans make the right moves to finally make the playoffs?
• Biggest Free Agents: Ryans, receiver Kevin Walter, tight end Owen Daniels, cornerback Dunta Robinson, safety Bernard Pollard.
• 2010 Upgrades: There are a few areas on this roster that need some work, particularly the defensive line and the secondary. Cushing showed he could be a solid pass-rusher from the linebacker spot but if I'm running the show, my #1 priority is finding an edge-rusher to pair with former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams. And don't be surprised to see the Texans bring in a veteran running back (Ladainian Tomlinson?) to help solidify the position.
• Draft: The 20th pick could go any number of ways but it's safe to say they will pick a defensive player (unless a good offensive lineman falls). Safety Taylor Mays, cornerback Kyle Wilson or defensive end Everson Griffen would all be welcome additions.
• 2010 Breakout Player: Defensive tackle Amobi Okoye has been in the league for three years but is still only 22 years old. Finally living up to his first-round potential would give the Texans an enormous boost.
• Schedule: Simply put, brutal. Two games each with the Colts, Jaguars and Titans are always tough. Add in contests with the Chargers, Ravens, Cowboys, Giants, Jets, Broncos and Eagles and the Texans face one of the toughest schedules in the league.

Tennessee Titans

• 2009 Review: The Titans, fresh off a 13-3 2008 campaign, started 2009 0-6 but returned from their bye week to finish the season 8-2 and made one of the most dramatic playoff-pushes of all-time. In the end, they fell short but Tennessee showed a lot of heart and talent late in the season.
• 2009 MVP: Running back Chris Johnson
• Offseason Questions: Quarterback Vince Young's status as a NFL starter has been one of the biggest issues in the league for the last few seasons. Young proved many of his doubters wrong when he returned to the starting lineup and led his team to an 8-2 record last year. 2010 will be his year from day one and this team will go as far as Young can take them.
• Biggest Free Agents: Running back LenDale White, tight end Alge Crumpler, center Kevin Mawae, defensive tackle Tony Brown, defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch, linebacker Keith Bulluck, linebacker Stephen Tulloch, cornerback Nick Harper.
• 2010 Upgrades: Wide receiver has been a weak-spot of this team for several years but they appear to figured it out with the additions of Kenny Britt and Nate Washington. The Titans are built around defensive line play and that group needs some new, young talent.
• Draft: With the 17th pick, the Titans will have a good chance to land one of the draft's top pass-rushers and should not hesitate to do so.
• 2010 Breakout Player: Britt exceeded expectations as a rookie, particularly once Young became quarterback. The 6'3" receiver is very fast for his size and should be the teams first 1,000 yard receiver since 2004.
• Schedule: Tough road games at San Diego, Miami, Dallas and the Giants compliment a home slate that features the Steelers, Eagles and Broncos. Every year we see a team that was not very good the year before surprise the league and make a playoff run. Maybe the Titans got an early jump on that process in 2009, but right now they are my pick for a big turnaround in 2010.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• 2009 Review: The Jaguars looked like a fringe playoff team midway through 2009 but they fell apart, finishing the season with losses in four of their last five games. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew continues to be a dominating player on an otherwise average team.
• 2009 MVP: Jones-Drew
• Offseason Questions: If the Carolina Panthers have the most important on-the-field offseason of any team, the Jaguars are running-away with the title of most important off-the-field offseason. Simply put, Jacksonville is in serious danger of having to relocate. The Jaguars have to figure out a way to get Jacksonville's football fans excited about this team.
• Biggest Free Agents: Linebacker Clint Ingram, defensive end Reggie Hayward.
• 2010 Upgrades: The Jaguars need to get more explosive on offense and have to get a weapon or two - they are too reliant on Jones-Drew. Defensively, their 25 takeaways ranked in the bottom third of the league and their 14 sacks were eight fewer than any other team in the NFL. Either way, they have to add players who will get fans talking and wanting to come to games.
• Draft: The best thing the Jaguars can do to stay in Jacksonville is win and they have to upgrade their pass-rush if they want to do that more consistently. Luckily, this draft is very deep in defensive ends so the Jaguars will have the pick of the litter at nine or 10 (coin toss to determine pick).
• 2010 Breakout Player: Tight end Marcedes Lewis has real talent but has yet to deliver in his first four seasons. At 25, this will be a make-or-break year for Lewis and the Jaguars would be wise to give him ample opportunities to prove himself.
• Schedule: On the road at San Diego, Dallas and the Giants will be tough but the AFC South comes down to divisional games. If the Jaguars cannot find a way to beat Tennessee, Houston and Indianapolis, they may be playing in Los Angeles in 2012.

Conference Outlook: Colts (13-3, first-round bye), Titans (11-5, wildcard), Texans (8-8), Jaguars (5-11)

NFC West (Teams will play AFC West & NFC South divisions)

Arizona Cardinals

• 2009 Review: After coming within minutes of winning the Super Bowl two years ago, the Cardinals entered 2009 with high expectations but were plagued by inconsistency. Arizona finished 10-6 and won a playoff game before getting blown-out by the eventual Super Bowl champions.
• 2009 MVP: Quarterback Kurt Warner
• Offseason Questions: The 38-year-old Warner turned the Cardinals into title contenders the last two seasons but has retired, leaving former first-round pick Matt Leinart as the teams' starting quarterback. Either Leinart is ready to be an NFL quarterback or the Cardinals 2010 season will be a struggle.
• Biggest Free Agents: Linebacker Karlos Dansby, receiver Steve Breaston, center Lyle Sendlein, linebacker Chike Okeafor.
• 2010 Upgrades: With Warner out of the picture, the Cardinals want to become a more balanced team offensively. Running back Beanie Wells looks like a steal as last year's 31st pick but the offensive line will need to be improved if they want to run more. Dansby should receive a huge pay-day and Arizona needs to add some youth and speed to the rest of the linebacking core.
• Draft: The 26th pick should be a game-time decision for the Cardinals. A highly-rated offensive lineman makes sense, as does a front-seven player on defense. Expect Arizona to get the highest value they can with this pick out of those two areas.
• 2010 Breakout Player: Wells is a logical choice and I'm not willing to gamble on Leinart. I predict Arizona will move Anquan Boldin this offseason, which opens the door for one of their young receivers to step-up. Early Doucet showed some real talent in the playoffs and, if Boldin is gone, Doucet could have a monster season.
• Schedule: If Arizona wants to make the playoffs for a third straight season, they will have to win on the road - something they have excelled at in recent years. They travel to play Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota and San Diego and have home games with New Orleans and Dallas.

San Francisco 49ers

• 2009 Review: The Niners have been down for several years but 2009 was a huge step in the right direction. After a fast 3-1 start, San Francisco lost four straight but ended the season on a high-note, winning four of their last six games. Quarterback Alex Smith played well enough at times to give Niners' fans some hope entering next season.
• 2009 MVP: Tight end Vernon Davis (honorable mention to Frank Gore)
• Offseason Questions: Head coach Mike Singletary and general manager Scot McCloughan have put together a good, young team. There is talent at every level but the quarterback position is still in question. Smith was decent in his first real playing-time since 2007 but is he the quarterback of the future?
• Biggest Free Agents: Defensive tackle Aubrayo Franklin, linebacker Ahmad Brooks, offensive lineman David Baas, Tony Pashos and Barry Sims.
• 2010 Upgrades: With building blocks all over the field, the Niners must compliment this talent with a combination of veterans and youth. Particularly, the offensive line and secondary need work.
• Draft: The Niners have two first-round picks in a very good draft and both picks are in the top-16. They will probably go offensive line and secondary but, with a team like Philadelphia rostering two starting quarterbacks, they could use one of these picks to trade for a guy like Kevin Kolb.
• 2010 Breakout Player: In my mind, this is the biggest no-brainer in the NFL. Receiver Michael Crabtree was a draft-day gift last year and, once he got on the field, showed why he is an elite talent. In 11 games, Crabtree caught 48 passes for 625 yards and two touchdowns. Depending on the quarterback situation, Crabtree could be a top-five receiver next season.
• Schedule: If the Niners can go 4-0 against Seattle and St. Louis, they can make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They face New Orleans and Philadelphia in San Francisco and travel to play Atlanta, Carolina, Green Bay and San Diego.

Seattle Seahawks

• 2009 Review: For the second straight season, the Seahawks looked old and slow and struggled to compete. The bottom fell out with a 24-7 loss at home against the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is old and they are still looking for a running back to replace Shaun Alexander, who left Seattle in 2007. Enter coach Pete Carroll.
• 2009 MVP: Linebacker David Hawthorne
• Offseason Questions: Carroll last coached in the NFL in 2000 but is ready to try his hand again at the Sunday version after unparalleled success at USC. As is the case for most new coaches, there is a lot of work to be done. Carroll's skills will be tested as he tries to overall this aging roster.
• Biggest Free Agents: Receiver Nate Burleson, defensive end Darryl Tapp, fullback Justin Griffith, kicker Olindo Mare.
• 2010 Upgrades: Not to beat a dead horse but the Seahawks have to get younger and must do so at virtually every position. The offensive line needs to be completely re-worked and Carroll must decide if Justin Forsett can be a lead-back in the NFL. Defensively, Seattle needs play-makers at every position and have to improve a pass-rush that ranked 26th in the league a year ago.
• Draft: Like their division rivals from San Francisco, the Seahawks have two first-round draft picks within the top 14. If Carroll is going to turn this franchise around, it all starts with two "hits" this year. With the sixth pick, Seattle will probably draft a defensive lineman and could hit the jackpot at 14 if running back C.J. Spiller is available, as predicted by several mock drafts.
• 2010 Breakout Player: The Seahawks defense has some solid candidates, starting with Aaron Curry who had a somewhat disappointing rookie season. Hawthorne is one of the most underrated players in the league as well. But my choice is defensive end Lawrence Jackson, who played for Carroll at USC. Jackson has big-time talent and showed signs of improvement with 4.5 sacks last year. That number should increase in year three for Jackson.
• Schedule: With non-divisional road games at New Orleans, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Denver, the Seahawks should be able to get to six wins. In the end, Seattle is rebuilding and expectations will not be very high in 2010.

St. Louis Rams

• 2009 Review: It has been an ugly five-year run for the Rams low-lighted by a one-win 2009 season that placed them in last place in the NFC West for the third straight year. The only highlight of the season was a seven point win at two-win Detroit in Week 8.
• 2009 MVP: Running back Steven Jackson
• Offseason Questions: The Rams pinned their future on Marc Bulger and he has played behind a dreadful offensive line, has gotten hurt and just played poorly. Normally a team in this situation would take a quarterback with the #1 overall pick but there is not a player to justify the pick. St. Louis will have to wait to figure out the quarterback situation.
• Biggest Free Agents: Safety Oshiomogho Atogwe, tackle Alex Barron, tight end Randy McMichael, defensive end Leonard Little.
• 2010 Upgrades: If head coach Steve Spagnuolo is content on giving Marc Bulger (or Kyle Boller for that matter) another chance to prove himself, he has to shore up the offensive line. The Rams ranked 25th in sacks allowed last season and the defense was not much better, ranking 30th in sacks. The 436 points they allowed was second worst in the NFL as well.
• Draft: Although there is not a quarterback for the Rams to draft, they get a nice consolation prize in dominating defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh. Suh is the consensus #1 pick and is a fierce player against both the run and the pass. Given Spagnuolo's success with defensive lineman in New York, Suh should excel as a Ram and be one of the league's best players' for years to come.
• 2010 Breakout Player: Chris Long has not the impact the Rams thought he would when they selected him second overall in the 2008 draft. The addition of Suh should open-up more one-on-one situations for Long and, with another year of coaching from Spagnuolo, Long could double his five sacks from 2009.
• Schedule: The Rams play a last-place schedule with games against Tampa Bay, Oakland, Kansas City and Washington. Unfortunately, given the many holes on this team, their rematch with Detroit may once again determine who gets the first pick in the 2011 draft.

Conference Outlook: 49ers (10-6, division winner), Cardinals (8-8), Seahawks (6-10), Rams (0-16)

Thursday (2/11) - AFC North & NFC East

Friday (2/12) - AFC East & NFC North

Friday (2/12) - Biggest Offseason Questions & Early Fantasy/Playoff Predictions