NFL - NFC South & AFC West 2010 Preview

By Willie Mullen

NFC South & AFC West 2010 Preview

As is always the case in professional sports, it's never too early to look ahead to next season.  A lot will change between now and training camp and the ongoing labor negotiations make this offseason even more unpredictable.  For the sake of this preview, we will operate under the assumption that there will be no salary cap next year.  In its simplest form, this means players with four-year's experience (who would normally be unrestricted free agents) are restricted free agents, allowing their current teams the opportunity to match any contract offers.  Additionally, players with six-year tenures are unrestricted free agents.  Here is part one of a five-part preview of the 2010-2011 NFL season.

NFC South (Teams will play AFC North & NFC West divisions)
 

New Orleans Saints

• 2009 Review: What a year it was for the Saints.  They started the season with 13 wins, locked up home-field advantage in the NFC and pulled off a fairly big upset in the Super Bowl to win the first championship in the franchises' 43 year history.  Quarterback Drew Brees ascended to the top echelon of NFL signal-callers, joining Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, and Sean Payton established himself as an elite head coach after a marvelous performance in the Super Bowl.
• 2009 MVP: Brees (safety Darren Sharper was a very close second)
• Offseason Questions: The biggest issue facing the Saints is the well-documented "disease of more".  When teams win championships, players up-and-down the roster look for pay increases, a bigger role or simply become complaisant so the Saints have to handle these inevitable situations delicately.
• Biggest Free Agents: Sharper, safety Roman Harper, running back Pierre Thomas, guard Jahri Evans, tackle Jammal Brown, tackle Jermon Bushrod, linebacker Scott Fujita.
• 2010 Upgrades: This is a young team that just won the Super Bowl so the Saints have very few weak spots.  They will look to upgrade their pass-rush with a defensive end and could look to get faster on defense at outside linebacker.
• Draft: This is a very, very deep draft so the Saints should get a good player at #32.  A defensive end or linebacker will be the pick.
• 2010 Breakout Player: 2009 first round pick Malcolm Jenkins struggled at times this season but really played well in the playoffs.  He had the best game of his young career in the Super Bowl and looks poised to make a big jump in year two.
• Schedule: Nothing is more important to NFL parody than scheduling and the Saints will face fellow NFC division winners Arizona, Minnesota and Dallas in addition to a difficult AFC North division.  Carolina and Atlanta make for four tough division games as well.  The Saints will also try to become the first team to win back-to-back NFC South titles in the eight-year history of the division.

Atlanta Falcons

• 2009 Review: It was an up-and-down year for the Falcons as injuries to quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner crushed their hopes of making the playoffs for a second straight year.  Tight end Tony Gonzalez was a great addition.
• 2009 MVP: Wide receiver Roddy White
• Offseason Questions: The Falcons had high expectations entering last season after a surprising playoff appearance but proved to be a team that overachieved in 2008 and needs some work to become a serious contender.  Specifically, the defense has holes and desperately needs to add a play-maker.  Turner struggled last season, even before his was injured, and needs to return to elite form.
• Biggest Free Agents: Running back Jerious Norwood, guard Harvey Dahl, tackle Tyson Clabo, running back Jason Snelling.
• 2010 Upgrades: This offseason will be all about defense in Atlanta where the Falcons need help at every level.  There are some good pieces on the defensive line and linebacker Curtis Lofton has been terrific in the middle but the secondary needs a lot of work.
• Draft: Atlanta cannot wait for the draft because it will be filled with big-time defensive prospects.  An interesting name here is USC safety Taylor Mays.  Mays looked like a sure-fire top five pick last year but had a disappointing season and is free-falling down draft boards.  If the Falcons like Mays, he could be the play-maker in the secondary they desperately need.
• 2010 Breakout Player: Defensive end Jamaal Anderson has been a huge bust and may be relegated to a back-up role if the Falcons add one or two pass-rushers.  But Anderson is only 24 and could still become an impact player.  This is more of a make-or-break selection on a team with few breakout candidates.
• Schedule: Outside of pre-set division opponents, the Falcons will play second-place NFC teams (Green Bay, San Francisco, Philadelphia).

Carolina Panthers

• 2009 Review: A year after a 12-4 record that resulted in a first-round bye in the playoffs, the Panthers struggled mightily last year, posting a 5-8 record before finally winning three straight games to end the season.  Overall, it was a disappointing season for Carolina.
• 2009 MVP: Running back Jonathan Stewart
• Offseason Questions: General manager Marty Hurney faces the most important and difficult offseason of any team in the NFL.  Defensive end Julius Peppers is a free agent and the team must decide if he is in their long-term plans.  Quarterback Jake Delhomme is signed through 2014 and proved that he is not a franchise player anymore.  To make matters worse, the Panthers do not have a first-round draft pick.
• Biggest Free Agents: Peppers, cornerback Richard Marshall, wide receiver Mushin Muhammad.
• 2010 Upgrades: Carolina's defense was in the top-third of the NFL is most statistics last year with the exception of their run defense, which was largely because of injuries.  The offense features one of the league's best lines and the NFL's top 1-2 running back combination in Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  They need another receiver to pair with Steve Smith but nothing is more important than figuring out the quarterback position.  What the Panthers do with Jake Delhomme (give him another year, trade him, cut him, bench him) is one of the top questions this offseason.
• Draft: San Francisco owns the Panthers first-round pick so immediate help may not be on the way.  But with what looks like two of the ten best running backs in the league on their roster, Carolina may decide to trade one (Williams) in exchange for a first-round pick.  The Seahawks (two first-round picks) and the Patriots (five picks in first three rounds) could be trade partners.
• 2010 Breakout Player: Stewart broke-out last season and, if he is the featured back, could be even better in 2010.  Behind a great offensive line and with more carries, Stewart could be a 1,500 yard, 15 touchdown running back.
• Schedule: Carolina will play the Bears and the Giants are a result of their 2009 season but the four games against Atlanta and New Orleans will dictate how their season turns out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• 2009 Review: Two of the Bucs three wins were against NFC playoff teams and they finished a dreadful season with two wins in their final three games.  Quarterback Josh Freeman stepped in as starter during the final nine games and the 2009 first-round pick showed some promise in an otherwise forgettable year.
• 2009 MVP: Cornerback Aqib Talib
• Offseason Questions: Tampa Bay is in a full-scale rebuilding mode but getting a starting quarterback last year may help speed-up this process.  There are some young pieces to like on the roster and they have to continue to add talent if they want to compete in the difficult NFC South.
• Biggest Free Agents: Running back Cadillac Williams, wide receiver Antonio Bryant, tackle Jeremy Trueblood, linebacker Barrett Ruud.
• 2010 Upgrades: Obviously a 3-13 team needs help at a lot of positions.  Offensively, they need to surround Freeman with some weapons and a receiver tops that list.  Tight end Kellen Winslow led the team with 77 catches but next best was Bryant with just 39.  The defense needs a pass-rusher as Stylez White's six and a half sacks led the team.
• Draft: With the third pick, the Bucs are in a good position to land an elite defensive prospect.  The organization and fans alike would be doing back-flips if all-world safety Eric Berry were available at this spot (as he's projected to be).
• 2010 Breakout Player: I see Berry as a future All-Pro caliber player so, if he is the pick, Berry will make an immediate impact and is my favorite for defensive rookie of the year.
• Schedule: The Redskins and Lions will play Tampa Bay and games against Seattle, St. Louis and Cleveland should mean more than three victories for the Bucs.  But this team is still a few years away from being any sort of threat.

Conference Outlook: Saints (12-4, first-round bye), Falcons (10-6, wildcard), Panthers (7-9), Buccaneers (4-12)

AFC West (Teams will play AFC South & NFC West divisions)

San Diego Chargers

• 2009 Review: It's hard to call a 13-3 season a disappoint but that's exactly what the 2009 season was for the Chargers.  San Diego was great during the regular season and looked poised to make a Super Bowl run but once again fell short in the playoffs, losing to the Jets in their first game.
• 2009 MVP: Quarterback Philip Rivers
• Offseason Questions: The Chargers will have to make big decisions on two guys who have been key franchise players for the better part of the last 10 years, linebacker Shawne Merriman and running back Ladainian Tomlinson.  Both will probably be on the move.
• Biggest Free Agents: Merriman, wide receiver Vincent Jackson, tackle Marcus McNeill, wide receiver Malcolm Floyd.
• 2010 Upgrades: 13-win teams usually do not have many needs and the Chargers are no different.  They have to figure out the running back position and expect San Diego to bring in a safety.
• Draft: Unfortunately for the Chargers, this draft lacks offensive weapons and the elite guys will be gone by the 28th pick.  Once Tomlinson is moved, this selection becomes a no-brainer: the Chargers will take the running back with the highest rating who is still on the board.  Interesting scenario: San Diego trades Tomlinson and the 28th pick to move up and select the draft's most explosive running back, CJ Spiller.
• 2010 Breakout Player: 2009 first-round pick Larry English.  English is a prototypical 3-4 pass-rushing outside linebacker and, with Merriman's departure, he could be a double-digit sack man for the next five years.
• Schedule: Playing the NFC West, in addition to four games against the Chiefs and Raiders, makes the Chargers a candidate for the NFL's best record.  Even with difficult games against the Colts, Patriots, Titans, Texans and Bengals, the Chargers will battle for home-field advantage in the AFC.

Denver Broncos

• 2009 Review: 2009 was a tale of two seasons for the Broncos.  After a surprising 6-0 start to their year, the Broncos fell and fell hard, finishing the year 2-8 and missing the playoffs.  All in all, it was a better than good year for first-year head coach Josh McDaniels.
• 2009 MVP: Linebacker Elvis Dumervil
• Offseason Questions: After the great start, the Broncos quickly found out that Kyle Orton, although a serviceable option, is not a franchise quarterback but he will have next year to prove himself once and for all.  Star wide receiver Brandon Marshall is one of the best in the league but is he worth all the headaches, even after a 100 catch, 1,100 yard, 10 touchdown season?
• Biggest Free Agents: Dumervil, Marshall, Orton, center Casey Wiegmann, tight end Tony Scheffler.
• 2010 Upgrades: The difference between the 6-0 Broncos and the 2-8 version was the play of their defense.  Dumervil is a star but the secondary, although very solid, is old and lacks speed.  Even though there is not a premium on line-play in the 3-4 alignment, the Broncos could use some help at defensive tackle and end.
• Draft: The Broncos own the Chicago Bears first-round pick from the Jay Cutler trade and that pick will either be the ninth or tenth selection, depending on a coin-toss.  If Marshall is let go (and it appears he will be), they will need a receiver and Dez Bryant would be a great replacement.  If Marshall somehow stays, the Broncos will go defense with the pick.  That could mean any number of possibilities: safety Earl Thomas, linebacker Roland McClain or one of the numerous first-round d-linemen.
• Schedule: The Broncos will face the Jets, Ravens and Texans thanks to their second-place finish.  The Colts and Titans are difficult match-ups as well.  But Denver has a favorable home schedule so another eight win season is well within reach.

Oakland Raiders

• 2009 Review: It was business as usual in Oakland during the 2009 season with poor draft picks, worse play and bizarre coaching issues.  The Raiders finished 5-11 and have gone 29-83 since losing Super Bowl XXXVII in January of 2003.  Three different quarterbacks saw significant playing time yet the team still does not have a capable man under center.
• 2009 MVP: Punter Shane Lechler
• Offseason Questions: With head coach Tom Cable's job apparently safe next season, the attention shifts to the product on the field.  There is a lot of work to be done with this team and it comes as no surprise that it all starts with the quarterback.  JaMarcus Russell would have to pull off one of the greatest career turnarounds in league history to not be considered a bust and neither Bruce Gradkowski or Charlie Frye is the long-term solution.  The Raiders will be looking for a quarterback and there are some options out there: Chad Pennington, Jason Campbell and Michael Vick should draw interest from Oakland.  Until they get the quarterback situation figured out, the other holes on this team will have to wait.
• Biggest Free Agents: Tackle Khalif Barnes, defensive end Richard Seymour, linebacker Thomas Howard, linebacker Kirk Morrison, kicker Sebastian Janikowski.
• 2010 Upgrades: Quarterback position aside, the Raiders need help on the offensive line and could use an influx of talent on defense, particularly in the linebacking core.  But for the Raiders to turn the corner, they need their last two first-round picks, running back Darren McFadden and wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, to live up to their potential.
• Draft: For all the problems this organization has, the draft is core issue plaguing the franchise.  Heyward-Bey, McFadden and Russell were top-10 picks the last three years and have yet to pan out.  Safety Michael Huff, the next on the Raiders' draft list, has been up-and-down, mostly down.  The major mock drafts have the Raiders going offensive line with the eight pick but you have a better chance of winning the lottery than guessing who Al Davis will select.
• 2010 Breakout Player: There are probably 10 players on this roster that are very skilled and under-performing but no one fits this mold better than McFadden.  With improved quarterback play (an "if") and an improved ability to hold onto the football (a bigger "if"), McFadden could become the explosive running/pass-catching threat he was drafted to be.
• Schedule: When you are this dysfunctional, you cannot afford to worry about the schedule.  But just to make matters worse, the Raiders play road games at Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Arizona and San Francisco, in addition to division rivals San Diego and Denver.  Indianapolis, Houston and Miami at home do not help the cause either.

Kansas City Chiefs

• 2009 Review: The Chiefs were over-matched all season long because of a bad offensive line and a defense that lacks talent.  Quarterback Matt Cassel struggled in his first season as a starter in the NFL but is a nice option at the position going forward.  Running back Jamaal Charles really exploded once he became the lead-back, rushing for 1,120 yards on 5.9 yards per carry, and receiver Chris Chambers provided a nice boost midway through the season.
• 2009 MVP: Charles
• Offseason Questions: With only two playoff appearances (and zero wins) since 1998, the Chiefs have been in rebuilding mode for quite some time and need to start making some noise.  The jury is still out on Todd Haley as a head coach but general manager Scott Pioli is considered one of the league's best personnel talents.
• Biggest Free Agents: Chambers, tight end Sean Ryan, linebacker Derrick Johnson.
• 2010 Upgrades: The focus in Kansas City has been on defense for the last six years but there are still big holes that need to be filled.  Cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr are developing nicely and the Chiefs need a few more play-makers like these two to really improve.  Offensively, Cassel, Charles and receiver Dwayne Bowe are solid players so the offensive line will be the focus this offseason.
• Draft: Four of the last six first-round picks for the Chiefs have been defensive players so it does not make sense for them to go back to that side of the ball with the fifth pick.  An offensive lineman is the obvious choice.  If Eric Berry were available for Kansas City, they would have an interesting choice to make.
• 2010 Breakout Player: In the last eight games of the season, Charles compiled 968 rushing yards, 158 receiving yards, 365 return yards and nine total touchdowns.  A full 16-game season as the featured back should result in huge numbers for Charles.
• Schedule: Besides road games at Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego and Denver, the Chiefs have a favorable schedule with more difficult games at home.  With a good offseason and draft, the Chiefs could move out of the bottom of the AFC West for the first time since 2007.

Conference Outlook: Chargers (12-4, first-round bye contention), Broncos (7-9), Chiefs (5-11), Raiders (2-14)

Wednesday (2/10) - AFC South & NFC West

Thursday (2/11) - AFC North & NFC East

Friday (2/11) - AFC East & NFC North

Friday (2/11) - Biggest Offseason Questions & Early Fantasy/Playoff Predictions