Super Bowl XLIV Preview
New Orleans Saints (15-3) @ Indianapolis Colts -5 (16-2)
- Saints: New Orleans is just over 50 hours away from playing in their first Super Bowl in franchise history. Since Hurricane Katrina, this moment has felt like destiny for the once downtrodden 'Aints, and it all began with the hiring of coach Sean Payton and the signing of free agent quarterback Drew Brees. Led by these two, the Saints have become a vehicle of hope for the city of New Orleans and Sunday has a chance to be one of the greatest collisions of life and sports in history. If the Saints were to win, the party on Bourbon Street may never stop. On the field, New Orleans was outplayed by the Vikings in the NFC title game but somehow they found a way to win. Watching that game (and several others throughout the year) and as I said on December 8th, this season feels like the Year of the Saints.
- Colts: Despite losing a Hall-of-Fame coach and a future Hall-of-Fame wide receiver, the Colts posted the best regular season record in the NFL and are favorites to win their second Super Bowl in four years. The defense is as good as it has been in the last 10 years and unknown players like Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have risen to the occasion to become vital weapons on offense. But make no mistake about it, Indianapolis will play for a title on Sunday because of Peyton Manning. Manning is coming off perhaps his greatest game and that is saying something considering his never-ending list of accomplishments. A win on Sunday will cement Manning's place as the greatest quarterback in NFL history, in my opinion.
- Preview: For the first time since 1993, the two #1 seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl and the Saints and Colts have been in first place in their conference's virtually all season long. Both teams feature high-octane offenses that score early, often and quickly. In fact, the over/under (56.5) is the highest in Super Bowl history so expect both teams to go up-and-down the field with regularity. Both Manning and Brees excel at taking what the defense gives them and will spread the ball around to their various targets with unmatched precision. Defensively, the Colts and Saints have differing philosophies. Indianapolis relies heavily on a four-man pass rush and a bend-but-don't-break style. The speed of the Colts defense is difficult to match and they particularly excel inside the red-zone, frequently holding teams to three points instead of seven. The Saints, meanwhile, are a blitzing team that takes more chances for turnovers while exposing themselves to some big plays. Throughout the season, New Orleans has successfully executed this plan but they will need to have their best game on Sunday if they want to win.
- Coaching: As a play-caller, Sean Payton is as good as it gets and his offense has so many play-makers that he should find some beneficial mismatches. Colts coach Jim Caldwell has proven to be a great decision-maker and time-manager and trusts his assistant coaches more than any other coach in the league. Manning is a coach on the field while Brees is his teams emotional leader. Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is the coach who will decide the outcome of this game in my opinion. Right now, coaching is a push until we see how Williams responds.
- Key Matchup: The obvious choice is Williams vs. Manning. Williams was not shy about his gameplan, saying he wants his team to bring the heat and hit Manning hard. Manning faced the league's best defense (and it's best defensive mind) last week and shredded the Jets by adjusting to their complicated blitz packages and making quick, good decisions. After hearing Williams' comments, expect Manning to go out and make a statement on the field. If they win, I'm sure Peyton will make a small comment about the Saints defensive coordinator's choice words. Other matchup's to keep an eye on: Garcon vs. Tracy Porter, the Colts linebacker's vs. Reggie Bush, Indy's kick coverage vs. Saints return game.
- Two Stats That Will Tell The Story: Points scored in the last two minutes of the first half and Reggie Wayne receiving yards. No one in league history is better late in the first half than Peyton Manning. The AFC Championship game was won by the Colts when Manning led a touchdown drive before halftime to cut the score to 17-13. If the game is close late in the first half (and it should be), the Saints cannot allow Manning time to lead a late scoring drive before the break. Wayne was not a factor two weeks ago because of the presence of Jets corner Darrelle Revis. The Saints do not have a true shut-down corner so Manning should look to his top receiver more than he did against New York. And while Garcon, Collie and Dallas Clark made big plays, a Saints victory still starts with limiting Wayne and forcing Manning to go to those other three.
- The Saints will win if...Reggie Bush plays like he did against Arizona three weeks ago. Bush is the ultimate x-factor and can go the distance on any touch. New Orleans will have to score a lot of points to win the game so Reggie will need to make some big plays. He can also help swing field position with punt returns. Obviously, if New Orleans can make Manning uncomfortable and force turnovers they can win as well.
- The Colts will win if...they protect Peyton Manning. If they nullify the blitz and allow Manning time to find open receivers, the Colts will hoist the Lombardi Trophy. It's that simple. Another thing will be preventing unforced errors, and particularly, they cannot shoot themselves in the foot with a fumble on a kick or punt return.
- Prediction: This is a hard game for me to pick because it's a heart vs. head situation. It's fair to say everyone who is not a Colts fan, Manning fan or a Tennessee fan will be rooting for the Saints and I am no different. But picking against Peyton Manning is a stupid thing to do. Manning's career reminds me of another "greatest to ever play the game". Once Michael Jordan got over the hump and tasted victory, he never relinquished that ability to will his team to win. Manning struggled in big games early on but, since his win over the Bears in Super Bowl XLI, he has taken his game to a different level. It's hard to imagine Manning not winning this game. That being said, I am going to listen to my heart. If this game were played 10 times, the Colts may win eight but Sunday is going to be one of those two games. There is something magical about this Saints team - from their improbable win at Washington to the NFC Championship game they have felt like a team of destiny all season long. Behind emotional leaders Drew Brees and Darren Sharper, the Saints will use the "no one believes in us" mantra to propel themselves to a Super Bowl title. And if I'm wrong, I won't be the first to say "Well, that's why you don't pick against Peyton Manning". Saints 34 - Colts 31
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